VS
The one thing that I have noticed in the Detroit-San Jose matchup was the lack of body contact. And that is one of the key things that the Canucks will have to implement in order to stop the offensive powerhouse that the Sharks have in their hulking forwards like Joe Thornton, Ryan Clowe, and Patrick Marleau. Also ever dangerous is Devin Setoguchi.
The objective of the Canucks is to take away as much ice that the San Jose defense can use to set up plays. The Sharks are lulled into thinking that this is going to be another run n' gun offensive, puck possession series like the one with the Red Wings and that their offense is going to be the key to making the Canucks pay the price. Well, the Canucks don't have the top ranked defense in the league for nothing. Salo, Ehrhoff, Hamhuis and the entire defensive corps are going to have to step up and make sure that the puck doesn't get through. Hitting the San Jose forwards as they come through the blue-line will offer up enough room to set up the Sedins, Burrows or Kesler.
The three big offensive threats have been Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi and Logan Couture for the Sharks. Combined in the playoffs those three have 17 of San Jose's 38 goals whereas Vancouver has not lit up the goal light very often with Burrows, Kesler and Daniel Sedin accounting for 10 goals out of 30. Needless to say, the Canucks are going to have to find some offense and physicality is what is going to make or break this series. Will the Sedins, whose offense was non-existent in the series against Nashville, break out and start producing offensively? Will the defense be able to stop the Sharks' offense in its tracks.
Understandably, Luongo has struggled in the last few games, but he bounced back in a big way in Game 7 of the Chicago series and also in Game 6 of the Nashville series. He won the games when they counted. But to dig a hole too early in the series with the Sharks is a death knell.
The San Jose Sharks expect one type of game. The Canucks job is to bring out another that the Sharks aren't expecting. The series will go Vancouver's way if Vancouver starts physically tiring out the San Jose Sharks early in the period. The Vancouver Canucks and San Jose have both had to play long series, while Tampa and Boston both swept their opponents. Now we will see how much of an effect the length of the series will wear on both sets of Conference finalists. The Canucks showed killer instinct in Game 6 when they closed out the series when it could have gone 7 games versus the Nashville Predators. But the Sharks haven't in their second round, when they had to go seven games when they went up 3-0 against the Red Wings. The mental edge of being able to shut down your opponent on the road versus the confidence builder in being able to overcome a 3-3 meltdown is going to be the swing-vote in this series.
The Breakdown
Faceoffs: Advantage San Jose - When Manny Malhotra, Vancouver's faceoff leader went down with a season-ending eye injury it hurt the Canucks on the faceoffs. Kesler and Sedin had to step up and be faceoff specialists. But competing against the likes of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, the Canucks centers fall woefully short.
Offense: Advantage San Jose - with powerhouses like Pavelski, Setoguchi and Couture and big bodies who can muscle opponents out of the way like Marleau, Thornton and Clowe, the Sharks are going to be a tough mouthful for the 'Nucks.
Defense: Advantage Vancouver - Ehrhoff, Edler, Salo, Hamhuis, Bieksa, Rome, Alberts. The Canucks have a "shut-down" defensive corps that the San Jose Sharks can't match.
Goalie: Advantage Vancouver - Antti Niemi has been a thorn in the side for the Vancouver Canucks for the past two years when the Canucks have been ousted out of playoff contention by the Chicago Blackhawks. Last year Niemi won the Stanley Cup, while Luongo pulled in a gold medal performance at the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Games. However this season it seems as if Niemi has struggled against Vancouver, whereas Luongo has picked up his play.
Intangibles:
a) The scoring touch: If the Sedins manage to break out of their scoring slump and elevate their game to the next level, it could spell disaster for the Sharks. If the combined offense of Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton finds it's ignition, the Canucks could be in serious trouble. The one thing that is clear is that the Canucks can't pin their playoff hopes on Ryan Kesler alone. Maybe that was allowable during the Predators-Canucks series, but not against an offensive team like San Jose.
b) Physicality: The San Jose Sharks have to expect physical contact in this series if they expect to win. The Canucks thrive on hitting because it opens up the ice around them and takes away the offensive advantage. In order for the Sharks to come out strong in this series, the old adage, "Do unto others before they do it to you." needs to be foremost on McClellan's mind. If you don't hit, then expect the Canucks to do it.
c) Mental Fatigue: With seven game series, there is an element of mental fatigue. With each series it gets harder and harder to get your mindset reset to the start of a new series. The euphoria that comes from beating an opponent has to be reset to a pre-series level and your work ethic has to go back to one game at a time. The Canucks have had that reset time. the Sharks have not. Coming off a seven-game series, the Sharks are going to have to make certain that their players reset to a different opponent and not expect the same moves from the previous one. The Canucks will be bringing a different game to the Conference finals series and the Sharks will have to adjust for that.
Intangibles: Advantage Vancouver
Verdict: Vancouver in seven games. Game one will be a feelout match for both teams. But the Vancouver Canucks cannot afford to split the series at any point. To do so will be giving the Sharks a much needed confidence boost and the Canucks will have to take that advantage away from them as much as possible.
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